Stock AnalizGeo Group Inc. GEO
Homebuilding · data as of November 13, 2026
Geo Group Inc. (GEO) is a consumer discretionary company listed in the US with a market value of about $4.3B. In the twelve months to September 30, 2026 it had revenue of $2.9B and net income of $167M, a net margin of 5.7%.
Its overall Stock Analiz score is 1.6 out of 5 (weak). The strongest part is track record (3/5); the weakest is value (1/5).
Key numbers: a P/E of 25.8, a price to free cash flow of 19.8, 5-year revenue growth of 2% a year, a 5-year average ROIC of 7%. A discounted cash flow model with moderate assumptions puts its intrinsic value about 31% below the current price.
Score: 1.6 / 5
Checks passed
- P/FCF below 20
- Profit margin improving
- 5-year EPS growth above 10% a year
- Profitable 5 years in a row
- ROE above 15%
- Positive free cash flow
- 20% to 100% of free cash flow returned to shareholders
- Stock-based pay below 5% of revenue
Checks not passed
- P/E below 25
- P/E below the industry median
- Price below intrinsic value (DCF, moderate assumptions)
- PEG below 1.5
- Revenue growth above 10% last year
- 3-year revenue growth above 10% a year
- 3-year free cash flow growth above 10% a year
- Strong R&D investment or growth above 20%
Valuation
Growth and quality
Financials, last 10 years
| Fiscal year | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.9B | $2.6B | $2.4B | $2.4B | $2.4B | $2.3B | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.3B | $2.3B | $2.2B |
| Net income | $167M | $254M | $32M | $107M | $172M | $77M | $113M | $167M | $145M | $146M | $149M |
| Free cash flow | $217M | -$125M | $164M | $205M | $198M | $213M | $333M | $221M | $79M | $233M | -$110M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.26 | $1.82 | $0.22 | $0.72 | $1.17 | $0.58 | $0.94 | $1.40 | $0.00 | $1.21 | $1.33 |
| Net margin | 5.7% | 9.7% | 1.3% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% |
| ROIC | — | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% |
From the company’s 10-K and 10-Q filings with the SEC. TTM = trailing twelve months.
What analysts expect
The average 12-month price target from 4 analysts is $40.94, 26% above the current price; targets range from $40.00 to $42.75; the consensus rating is “Strong buy”; expected EPS is $1.43 for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
What is Geo Group’s P/E ratio?
About 25.8, based on the last twelve months of diluted earnings per share (forward P/E about 15.8).
Is Geo Group stock undervalued?
Our DCF model with moderate assumptions puts its intrinsic value about 31% below the current market value. A model is a range, not a promise; try your own assumptions in the DCF calculator.
Does Geo Group pay a dividend?
Not currently.
Is Geo Group a good stock to buy?
We do not give buy or sell advice. Geo Group scores 1.6 out of 5 on our five checks (value, growth, track record, financial health and shareholder returns); the checks above show why.
Similar companies
Generated from SEC filings, analyst consensus estimates and market prices, rebuilt every day. Educational information, not investment advice.